Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
43
Model margin
+5.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.011
- 42.0%Success rate41.2%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.116
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.3%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.29Points / drive1.90
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.118
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -9 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 14:06 | 3 | 7 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 12:30 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 7:30 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| GB | Q1 5:37 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 3:36 | 11 | 46 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| GB | Q2 12:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 10:39 | 4 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–16 |
| GB | Q2 8:30 | 10 | 59 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| CAR | Q2 3:45 | 2 | 32 | Touchdown | 7–23 |
| GB | Q2 3:19 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–23 |
| CAR | Q2 1:46 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–23 |
| GB | Q2 0:19 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 7–23 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–23 |
| GB | Q3 13:20 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–23 |
| CAR | Q3 12:18 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 7–26 |
| GB | Q3 7:50 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 13–26 |
| CAR | Q3 3:06 | 8 | 30 | Touchdown | 13–32 |
| GB | Q4 14:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–32 |
| CAR | Q4 13:37 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 19–32 |
| GB | Q4 11:55 | 1 | 16 | Touchdown | 21–32 |
| CAR | Q4 11:49 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 21–32 |
| GB | Q4 7:18 | 13 | 90 | Touchdown | 29–32 |
| CAR | Q4 3:07 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 29–32 |
| GB | Q4 1:58 | 5 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 29–32 |
| CAR | Q4 1:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 29–32 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 28/47 | 303 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/24 | 206 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 19 | 51 | 2.7 | 2 |
| DeShaun Foster | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.62