2005 · Week 4

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

29·32

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

43

Model margin

+5.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.059EPA / play+0.011
  • 42.0%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.003EPA / dropback+0.125
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.116
  • 6.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 41.1%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.90
  • 3.8%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.118

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. CAR are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB
2011 · W2GB @ CAR30–23GB

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre28/4730341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green14362.60
Brett Favre11212.00
Najeh Davenport4102.50

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme17/2420620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis19512.72
DeShaun Foster9384.20
Nick Goings100.00
Jake Delhomme2-3-1.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.62