Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:21 | 6 | 54 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:17 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 6:22 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:34 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:49 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:52 | 10 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| NE | Q2 6:21 | 3 | 39 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 5:29 | 6 | 34 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NE | Q2 2:47 | 13 | 77 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| LAC | Q2 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LAC | Q3 10:54 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| NE | Q3 6:16 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–17 |
| LAC | Q3 4:36 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 31–17 |
| NE | Q3 0:19 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 31–17 |
| LAC | Q4 13:39 | 14 | 64 | Field goal | 34–17 |
| NE | Q4 4:44 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 34–17 |
| LAC | Q4 4:30 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 34–17 |
| NE | Q4 1:35 | 4 | 15 | Opp touchdown | 41–17 |
| NE | Q4 0:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/32 | 224 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 2/4 | 15 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.