Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
42
Model margin
-1.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.074
- 41.2%Success rate40.7%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.308
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.3%Third-down rate38.3%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
- 1.90Points / drive1.36
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:28 | 2 | 19 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 10:35 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 7:37 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 5:41 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 2:59 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 0:45 | 3 | 26 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 14:55 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| ARI | Q2 12:29 | 5 | 57 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q2 10:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q2 8:35 | 6 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q2 5:08 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 10–17 |
| ARI | Q2 2:04 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q2 1:37 | 7 | 35 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| ARI | Q2 0:42 | 5 | 53 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q2 0:06 | 1 | 12 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–17 |
| ARI | Q3 12:05 | 11 | 54 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| CAR | Q3 5:11 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 10–20 |
| ARI | Q3 2:31 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 10–20 |
| CAR | Q3 0:27 | 2 | 5 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| ARI | Q4 14:57 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 17–20 |
| CAR | Q4 11:54 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| ARI | Q4 6:54 | 11 | 48 | Turnover | 24–20 |
| CAR | Q4 2:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–20 |
| ARI | Q4 1:41 | 4 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 24–20 |
| CAR | Q4 0:55 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 24–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 18/29 | 243 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 29/46 | 394 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 13 | 22 | 1.7 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.31
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.62