Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
42
Model margin
-1.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.074
- 41.2%Success rate40.7%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.308
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.3%Third-down rate38.3%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
- 1.90Points / drive1.36
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 18/29 | 243 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 29/46 | 394 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 13 | 22 | 1.7 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.31
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.62