Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
33
Model margin
+3.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.082
- 40.9%Success rate39.5%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.141
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.0%
- 35.3%Third-down rate37.9%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.48Points / drive1.44
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.029EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 11:23 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 9:53 | 11 | 46 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q1 4:15 | 9 | 16 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q2 15:00 | 14 | 37 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| MIA | Q2 8:08 | 6 | 61 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| BUF | Q2 5:02 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–17 |
| MIA | Q2 3:10 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| BUF | Q2 1:50 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–17 |
| MIA | Q2 1:00 | 2 | 12 | End of half | 0–17 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–17 |
| BUF | Q3 12:49 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 0–17 |
| MIA | Q3 8:14 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q3 5:50 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q3 3:01 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q3 2:17 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q3 0:21 | 9 | 49 | Punt | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q4 11:43 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q4 9:39 | 3 | 35 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q4 8:18 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| MIA | Q4 4:35 | 8 | 53 | Turnover | 14–20 |
| BUF | Q4 1:37 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 14–20 |
| MIA | Q4 0:21 | 2 | -16 | End of half | 14–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 21/33 | 226 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 17 | 97 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 20/26 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 31 | 86 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.96