Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
33
Model margin
+3.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.082
- 40.9%Success rate39.5%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.141
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.0%
- 35.3%Third-down rate37.9%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.48Points / drive1.44
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.029EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 21/33 | 226 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 17 | 97 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 20/26 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 31 | 86 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.96