Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play-0.023
- 39.5%Success rate40.5%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.143
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- 34.3%Third-down rate41.9%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.28Points / drive1.55
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–27 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 13:01 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 11:58 | 8 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 8:51 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–13 |
| DAL | Q1 7:48 | 1 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q1 7:41 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–14 |
| DAL | Q1 5:37 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| PHI | Q1 0:19 | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| DAL | Q2 10:23 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| PHI | Q2 5:22 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–24 |
| DAL | Q2 2:33 | 12 | 70 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| PHI | Q2 0:09 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 3–27 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–27 |
| DAL | Q3 13:46 | 7 | 21 | Field goal | 3–30 |
| PHI | Q3 11:39 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–30 |
| DAL | Q3 8:51 | 12 | 54 | Opp touchdown | 10–30 |
| DAL | Q3 1:12 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–30 |
| PHI | Q4 14:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–30 |
| DAL | Q4 13:50 | 12 | 48 | Field goal | 10–33 |
| PHI | Q4 4:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–33 |
| DAL | Q4 3:06 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–33 |
| PHI | Q4 2:07 | 4 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 10–33 |
| DAL | Q4 1:25 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 10–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 13/26 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 3/4 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 24/35 | 289 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Thompson | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.75