Closing spread
SD -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:43 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:33 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:56 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 7:00 | 10 | 63 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:49 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 14:47 | 12 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 9:14 | 10 | 40 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q2 4:33 | 8 | 25 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q2 1:37 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| PIT | Q2 0:34 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–7 |
| PIT | Q3 14:05 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 11:55 | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| PIT | Q3 9:42 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q3 6:47 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| PIT | Q3 3:54 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LAC | Q3 0:31 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| PIT | Q4 11:41 | 3 | 62 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| LAC | Q4 10:30 | 12 | 52 | Touchdown | 21–22 |
| PIT | Q4 4:42 | 10 | 40 | Field goal | 24–22 |
| LAC | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 24–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/26 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.28
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.