Closing spread
PK
Total
42
Model margin
-1.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.102
- 41.2%Success rate38.8%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.109
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.090
- 7.4%Explosive rate5.7%
- 43.3%Third-down rate38.8%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.90Points / drive1.20
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 15/25 | 236 | 2 | 3 |
| Chris Weinke | 5/7 | 47 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jamal Robertson | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 17/28 | 201 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.19