2005 · Week 6

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

21·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PK

Total

42

Model margin

-1.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapLions
  • +0.011EPA / play-0.102
  • 41.2%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback-0.109
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.090
  • 7.4%Explosive rate5.7%
  • 43.3%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.20
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.020

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. DET are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DET @ CAR26–32CAR
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DET
DETQ1 15:00721Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:55763Turnover0–0
DETQ1 6:1435Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 5:0139Punt0–0
DETQ1 3:3633Turnover0–0
CARQ1 2:24311Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 0:5433Punt7–6
CARQ2 14:3010Opp touchdown7–7
CARQ2 14:17180Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 14:00528Punt14–7
CARQ2 9:334-2Opp touchdown14–14
CARQ2 8:283-11Punt14–14
DETQ2 6:1457Turnover14–14
CARQ2 3:4049Missed field goal14–14
DETQ2 1:483-5Punt14–14
CARQ2 0:4312End of half14–14
CARQ3 15:0031Punt14–14
DETQ3 13:0962Turnover14–14
CARQ3 11:0510Turnover14–14
DETQ3 10:58425Turnover14–14
CARQ3 8:45518Punt14–14
DETQ3 6:491131Field goal14–17
CARQ3 0:401170Turnover on downs14–17
DETQ4 8:52589Field goal14–20
CARQ4 5:0844Punt14–20
DETQ4 3:3830Punt14–20
CARQ4 3:131164Touchdown21–20
DETQ4 0:3240Turnover on downs21–20
CARQ4 0:0400End of half21–20

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme15/2523623
Chris Weinke5/74710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis13272.10
Nick Goings4153.80
Jamal Robertson471.80
Jake Delhomme252.50
Chris Weinke200.00

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington17/2820101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Jones12211.80
Shawn Bryson5122.40
Joey Harrington3124.00
Artose Pinner471.80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line 02.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.19