Closing spread
PIT -5
Total
36
Model margin
-5.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.057
- 42.5%Success rate43.9%
- +0.113EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- 41.0%Third-down rate35.7%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.68Points / drive1.99
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.066EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 19/35 | 177 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Pearman | 15 | 22 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 11/28 | 154 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 21 | 55 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-7.73
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.26