2005 · Week 6

Final / OT

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

23·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 56°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PIT -5

Total

36

Model margin

-5.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.057
  • 42.5%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback+0.202
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 41.0%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.99
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.066EPA / play allowed-0.084

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PIT
PITQ1 15:00513Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 12:3932Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:10421Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:151058Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ1 2:294-7Turnover6–0
JAXQ1 1:1917Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 1:12621Touchdown7–7
JAXQ2 14:5233Opp touchdown7–14
JAXQ2 13:50834Punt7–14
PITQ2 8:16411Punt7–14
JAXQ2 7:173-8Punt7–14
PITQ2 5:3732Punt7–14
JAXQ2 4:3832Punt7–14
PITQ2 3:1734Punt7–14
JAXQ2 1:43515Field goal10–14
JAXQ3 15:00656Touchdown17–14
PITQ3 11:46620Punt17–14
JAXQ3 8:40421Punt17–14
PITQ3 6:28622Punt17–14
JAXQ3 4:23933Punt17–14
PITQ4 14:521259Field goal17–17
JAXQ4 9:38513Punt17–17
PITQ4 7:09854Missed field goal17–17
JAXQ4 3:281117Turnover17–17
PITQ4 0:1900End of half17–17
PITOT3-1Turnover17–17
JAXOT3-7Punt17–17
PITOT20Opp touchdown23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich19/3517711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Pearman15221.50
Byron Leftwich111.00
Matt Jones1-7-7.00

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox11/2815413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker21552.60
Tommy Maddox3155.00
Jerome Bettis441.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.3%4.9%3.2%7.4%6.4%3.4%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.2%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.73
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-5.26