Closing spread
CHI -2
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.138
- 40.6%Success rate37.0%
- -0.009EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 33.7%Third-down rate28.3%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.46Points / drive1.08
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 26/48 | 237 | 0 | 2 |
| Brad Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 16/25 | 117 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 89 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Kyle Orton | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.39
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.20