Closing spread
CHI -2
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.138
- 40.6%Success rate37.0%
- -0.009EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 33.7%Third-down rate28.3%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.46Points / drive1.08
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 59 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 10:20 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:03 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 5:20 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 2:39 | 7 | 32 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q2 14:50 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q2 14:13 | 14 | 55 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 6:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q2 5:29 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 3:17 | 8 | 44 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 0:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q3 13:24 | 7 | 49 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q3 10:33 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q3 9:20 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q3 8:04 | 2 | 3 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q3 7:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CHI | Q3 6:44 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q3 3:11 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CHI | Q3 1:46 | 8 | 50 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| MIN | Q4 13:03 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–21 |
| CHI | Q4 11:57 | 7 | 20 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| MIN | Q4 7:59 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| CHI | Q4 7:07 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 3–21 |
| MIN | Q4 5:03 | 4 | -5 | Turnover on downs | 3–27 |
| CHI | Q4 4:15 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| MIN | Q4 4:11 | 12 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 3–28 |
| CHI | Q4 1:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 26/48 | 237 | 0 | 2 |
| Brad Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 16/25 | 117 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 89 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Kyle Orton | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.39
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.20