Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.088
- 44.6%Success rate44.7%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.067
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- 42.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.97
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 8:12 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:37 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 3:04 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 0:50 | 6 | 97 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 12:36 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 10:36 | 5 | 91 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NE | Q2 7:52 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q2 6:55 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NE | Q2 5:30 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q2 2:33 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| NE | Q2 0:48 | 3 | 44 | Missed field goal | 3–21 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| NE | Q3 10:36 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–28 |
| DEN | Q3 9:39 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–28 |
| NE | Q3 8:14 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 6–28 |
| DEN | Q3 5:53 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–28 |
| NE | Q3 3:43 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 13–28 |
| DEN | Q4 14:56 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 13–28 |
| NE | Q4 11:03 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 20–28 |
| DEN | Q4 8:01 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 20–28 |
| NE | Q4 5:02 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 20–28 |
| DEN | Q4 3:36 | 5 | 28 | End of half | 20–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/46 | 299 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Pass | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/24 | 262 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 13 | 114 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Kyle Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.28