Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.088
- 44.6%Success rate44.7%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.067
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- 42.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.97
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/46 | 299 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Pass | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/24 | 262 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 13 | 114 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Kyle Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.28