Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
33
Model margin
+4.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play-0.082
- 40.1%Success rate39.5%
- -0.093EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.141
- 5.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- 35.3%Third-down rate37.9%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.30Points / drive1.44
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 12/26 | 161 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 148 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 18/26 | 172 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 29 | 143 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Shaud Williams | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.24
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.43