Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
33
Model margin
+4.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play-0.082
- 40.1%Success rate39.5%
- -0.093EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.141
- 5.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- 35.3%Third-down rate37.9%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.30Points / drive1.44
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:45 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 6:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:47 | 7 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 1:07 | 11 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:05 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q2 8:28 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:41 | 4 | 53 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| BUF | Q2 5:53 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:25 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q2 0:30 | 2 | 6 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 54 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| BUF | Q3 13:13 | 11 | 87 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:32 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 10–24 |
| BUF | Q3 3:33 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:24 | 2 | 2 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| BUF | Q3 1:41 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 17–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:01 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 17–24 |
| BUF | Q4 11:35 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 17–27 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:54 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 17–27 |
| BUF | Q4 4:54 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 17–27 |
| NYJ | Q4 4:24 | 6 | 55 | Turnover | 17–27 |
| BUF | Q4 3:01 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 17–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 12/26 | 161 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 148 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 18/26 | 172 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 29 | 143 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Shaud Williams | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.24
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.43