Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
42
Model margin
+1.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. OAK are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 16 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:37 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 4:18 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:55 | 9 | 72 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| BUF | Q2 14:47 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 13:09 | 4 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 11:43 | 9 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 6:40 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 5:05 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 4:04 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| BUF | Q2 0:40 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| BUF | Q3 10:10 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LV | Q3 8:00 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 10–24 |
| BUF | Q3 5:59 | 7 | 25 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| LV | Q3 3:26 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| BUF | Q3 2:49 | 7 | 38 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LV | Q4 14:53 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| BUF | Q4 8:49 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–31 |
| LV | Q4 7:41 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 17–38 |
| BUF | Q4 0:14 | 1 | 10 | End of half | 17–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 19/27 | 159 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.