Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
42
Model margin
+1.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 6–5 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. OAK are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 19/27 | 159 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.