Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
43
Model margin
+0.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.102
- 43.9%Success rate48.2%
- +0.202EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.023
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- 35.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.99Points / drive2.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9/14 | 93 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 18 | 131 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/36 | 227 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Chris Perry | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.38