Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
43
Model margin
+0.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.102
- 43.9%Success rate48.2%
- +0.202EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.023
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- 35.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.99Points / drive2.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 63 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:06 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 7:33 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 2:37 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 12:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PIT | Q2 10:06 | 12 | 50 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 3:58 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| PIT | Q2 0:28 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–6 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| CIN | Q3 14:08 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| PIT | Q3 12:13 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| CIN | Q3 10:09 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| PIT | Q3 9:00 | 3 | 47 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| CIN | Q3 7:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–6 |
| PIT | Q3 6:16 | 11 | 55 | Touchdown | 24–6 |
| CIN | Q4 15:00 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 24–6 |
| PIT | Q4 13:14 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 27–6 |
| CIN | Q4 6:56 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 27–6 |
| PIT | Q4 6:11 | 8 | 25 | Turnover | 27–6 |
| CIN | Q4 2:52 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| PIT | Q4 1:57 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9/14 | 93 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 18 | 131 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/36 | 227 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Chris Perry | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.38