Closing spread
PIT -8.5
Total
33
Model margin
+5.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play+0.057
- 38.7%Success rate43.9%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- 39.5%Third-down rate35.7%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.20Points / drive1.99
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 6:03 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q1 1:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q2 14:52 | 1 | 7 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q2 14:44 | 3 | -12 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| BAL | Q2 13:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 11:50 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| BAL | Q2 9:11 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| PIT | Q2 5:03 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| BAL | Q2 4:55 | 3 | 4 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| PIT | Q2 3:57 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 10–10 |
| BAL | Q2 2:11 | 10 | 49 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| PIT | Q3 13:42 | 10 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| BAL | Q3 7:47 | 17 | 58 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| PIT | Q4 13:56 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–17 |
| BAL | Q4 12:47 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 16–17 |
| PIT | Q4 8:40 | 8 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 16–17 |
| BAL | Q4 5:48 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 19–17 |
| PIT | Q4 3:21 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 19–20 |
| BAL | Q4 1:36 | 7 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 19–20 |
| PIT | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 25/44 | 252 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/30 | 177 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.58