Closing spread
DET -3
Total
32.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.138EPA / play-0.102
- 37.0%Success rate38.8%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.109
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.090
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.7%
- 28.3%Third-down rate38.8%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.08Points / drive1.20
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.167EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 17/31 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 72 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 23/35 | 197 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Artose Pinner | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Scott Vines | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.87
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18