Closing spread
CAR -8
Total
44
Model margin
+7.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.011
- 40.6%Success rate41.2%
- -0.009EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.116
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- 33.7%Third-down rate43.3%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.46Points / drive1.90
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.118
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 13/28 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 3/4 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 21/30 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 17 | 40 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Nick Goings | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.39
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+7.82