2005 · Week 8
Final
Monster Park · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TB -11.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.203
- 39.7%Success rate34.0%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.265
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.129
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.8%
- 38.9%Third-down rate25.0%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 1.36Points / drive0.94
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 6:59 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 5:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:35 | 7 | 50 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 0:05 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 14:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q2 12:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 10:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q2 9:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 7:52 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q2 7:09 | 4 | 6 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 6:00 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SF | Q2 0:18 | 1 | 29 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–6 |
| SF | Q3 12:49 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–6 |
| TB | Q3 10:01 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| SF | Q3 7:53 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| TB | Q3 6:16 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 3–9 |
| SF | Q3 4:14 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 3–12 |
| TB | Q3 2:45 | 9 | 39 | Missed field goal | 3–12 |
| SF | Q4 12:56 | 3 | 15 | Punt | 9–12 |
| TB | Q4 10:45 | 1 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–12 |
| SF | Q4 10:33 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–12 |
| TB | Q4 8:17 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–12 |
| SF | Q4 6:58 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 10–15 |
| TB | Q4 1:56 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 10–15 |
| SF | Q4 1:42 | 3 | 5 | Missed field goal | 10–15 |
| TB | Q4 0:39 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 10–15 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 21/34 | 264 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 13 | 20 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 7/18 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Pickett | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 26 | 101 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cody Pickett | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ken Dorsey | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
0.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.13
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.84