2005 · Week 8
Final
Monster Park · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TB -11.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.203
- 39.7%Success rate34.0%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.265
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.129
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.8%
- 38.9%Third-down rate25.0%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 1.36Points / drive0.94
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 21/34 | 264 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 13 | 20 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 7/18 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Pickett | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 26 | 101 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cody Pickett | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ken Dorsey | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
0.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.13
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.84