Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.138EPA / play-0.096
- 37.0%Success rate41.1%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.205
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- 28.3%Third-down rate38.7%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.08Points / drive1.11
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.167EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 12/26 | 137 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 58 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/26 | 170 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 17 | 110 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.89