Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.138EPA / play-0.096
- 37.0%Success rate41.1%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.205
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- 28.3%Third-down rate38.7%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.08Points / drive1.11
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.167EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 49 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 12:18 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 10:33 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 8:32 | 7 | 26 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NO | Q1 6:26 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q1 4:54 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NO | Q1 3:27 | 14 | 95 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q2 9:57 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 8:41 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q2 8:34 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 7:06 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q2 4:52 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 3:07 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q2 1:49 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| NO | Q2 0:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NO | Q3 13:27 | 1 | -3 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| CHI | Q3 13:23 | 3 | 1 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| NO | Q3 12:29 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CHI | Q3 10:51 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| NO | Q3 7:29 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–10 |
| CHI | Q3 5:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–10 |
| NO | Q3 4:23 | 6 | 44 | Punt | 17–10 |
| CHI | Q3 1:40 | 4 | 43 | Punt | 17–10 |
| NO | Q4 14:16 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| CHI | Q4 7:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–17 |
| NO | Q4 6:17 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–17 |
| CHI | Q4 4:08 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| NO | Q4 0:06 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 12/26 | 137 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 58 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/26 | 170 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 17 | 110 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.89