Closing spread
IND -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.188EPA / play+0.076
- 51.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.339EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.083
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- 50.1%Third-down rate42.3%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 2.60Points / drive1.91
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/37 | 321 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 34 | 104 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/33 | 265 | 3 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 3/7 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.55