2005 · Week 9 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
PK
Total
41
Model margin
+6.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play+0.014
- 39.5%Success rate41.3%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.083
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 34.3%Third-down rate43.1%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.28Points / drive1.80
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.058
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 22/35 | 304 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 24 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 21/29 | 224 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.18