Closing spread
PIT -7.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.057
- 39.5%Success rate43.9%
- -0.097EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.183EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- 32.4%Third-down rate35.7%
- 38.1%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.22Points / drive1.99
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:53 | 9 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 6:07 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 4:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 3:02 | 9 | 53 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q2 12:59 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q2 8:20 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q2 6:17 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q2 2:11 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 1:19 | 8 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| CLE | Q2 0:06 | 1 | -4 | End of half | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| CLE | Q3 13:19 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 7–24 |
| PIT | Q3 9:00 | 12 | 40 | Punt | 7–24 |
| CLE | Q3 0:51 | 1 | 21 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| PIT | Q3 0:41 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| CLE | Q4 14:48 | 8 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 7–27 |
| PIT | Q4 11:42 | 11 | 38 | Opp touchdown | 14–27 |
| PIT | Q4 4:23 | 5 | 29 | Touchdown | 14–34 |
| CLE | Q4 1:53 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 21–34 |
| PIT | Q4 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 17/34 | 253 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 13/19 | 150 | 0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 4/7 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.98
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.38