Closing spread
PIT -7.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.057
- 39.5%Success rate43.9%
- -0.097EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.183EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- 32.4%Third-down rate35.7%
- 38.1%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.22Points / drive1.99
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 17/34 | 253 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 13/19 | 150 | 0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 4/7 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.98
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.38