Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
40
Model margin
+0.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.104
- 40.5%Success rate39.5%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.192
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- 41.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.55Points / drive1.28
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–27 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 8:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 6:51 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 4:47 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q1 0:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 14:53 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 11:32 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 8:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 7:00 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 3:03 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 2:51 | 4 | 17 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| DAL | Q2 1:47 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q2 0:40 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 7–14 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 0 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q3 11:21 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| DAL | Q3 8:06 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q3 5:50 | 8 | 43 | Punt | 7–17 |
| DAL | Q3 2:19 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q4 13:58 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| DAL | Q4 9:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–20 |
| PHI | Q4 8:02 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–20 |
| DAL | Q4 3:44 | 4 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| PHI | Q4 3:04 | 2 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 21–20 |
| PHI | Q4 2:43 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 21–20 |
| DAL | Q4 1:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–20 |
| PHI | Q4 0:45 | 5 | 23 | Missed field goal | 21–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 17/24 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/34 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike McMahon | 2/5 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 16 | 86 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Lamar Gordon | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Mike McMahon | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.82