Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
40
Model margin
+0.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.104
- 40.5%Success rate39.5%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.192
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- 41.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.55Points / drive1.28
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 17/24 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/34 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike McMahon | 2/5 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 16 | 86 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Lamar Gordon | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Mike McMahon | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.82