Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.082
- 45.7%Success rate39.5%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.036
- +0.042EPA / rush-0.141
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.0%
- 43.7%Third-down rate37.9%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 2.01Points / drive1.44
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/40 | 220 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 27 | 132 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 9/16 | 137 | 2 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 4/6 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.15