Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.040
- 44.6%Success rate40.9%
- +0.186EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.086
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 42.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.91Points / drive1.48
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 30–25 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 51 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:48 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 7:24 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 4:17 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 1:19 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q2 13:14 | 9 | 62 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NE | Q2 9:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q2 8:07 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NE | Q2 4:22 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 3:22 | 4 | 55 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NE | Q2 1:48 | 7 | 63 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q3 13:31 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q3 12:22 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q3 10:01 | 4 | 40 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q3 8:06 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q3 7:03 | 4 | 3 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| MIA | Q3 5:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–7 |
| NE | Q3 5:01 | 10 | 53 | Touchdown | 12–7 |
| MIA | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 12–7 |
| NE | Q4 14:04 | 5 | 3 | Field goal | 15–7 |
| MIA | Q4 12:24 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 15–10 |
| NE | Q4 8:14 | 6 | 12 | Turnover | 15–10 |
| MIA | Q4 5:09 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 15–16 |
| NE | Q4 2:59 | 2 | 76 | Touchdown | 23–16 |
| MIA | Q4 2:16 | 8 | 75 | Turnover on downs | 23–16 |
| NE | Q4 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/36 | 275 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Cloud | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 25/47 | 360 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 13 | 1.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.75