Closing spread
CHI -12
Total
33
Model margin
+1.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.138
- 34.0%Success rate37.0%
- -0.265EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.129
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- 25.0%Third-down rate28.3%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 0.94Points / drive1.08
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Pickett | 1/13 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 25 | 63 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cody Pickett | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 8/13 | 67 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 24 | 120 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Cedric Benson | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.19