Closing spread
CHI -12
Total
33
Model margin
+1.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.138
- 34.0%Success rate37.0%
- -0.265EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.129
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- 25.0%Third-down rate28.3%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 0.94Points / drive1.08
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 8:01 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 6:39 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 4:20 | 7 | 30 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 0:31 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q2 13:07 | 8 | 15 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 8:57 | 8 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 4:47 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 2:44 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 2:31 | 8 | 37 | Opp touchdown | 3–7 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| CHI | Q3 9:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q3 7:30 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| CHI | Q3 6:04 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| SF | Q3 4:06 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 6–7 |
| CHI | Q3 1:42 | 6 | 46 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| SF | Q4 14:33 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 6–14 |
| SF | Q4 12:55 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 9–14 |
| CHI | Q4 10:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–14 |
| CHI | Q4 8:56 | 3 | 10 | Field goal | 9–17 |
| SF | Q4 7:40 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 9–17 |
| CHI | Q4 6:07 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 9–17 |
| SF | Q4 1:48 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 9–17 |
| CHI | Q4 1:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Pickett | 1/13 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 25 | 63 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cody Pickett | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 8/13 | 67 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 24 | 120 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Cedric Benson | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.19