Closing spread
SD -9
Total
42
Model margin
+5.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SD are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 9:31 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:40 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| BUF | Q1 0:32 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 14:33 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–14 |
| BUF | Q2 13:02 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 11:16 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| BUF | Q2 7:22 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| LAC | Q2 7:08 | 6 | 17 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| BUF | Q2 3:12 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| LAC | Q2 1:23 | 6 | 88 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| BUF | Q2 0:37 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–35 |
| LAC | Q2 0:05 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–35 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 10–35 |
| LAC | Q3 10:32 | 10 | 80 | Field goal | 10–38 |
| BUF | Q3 4:01 | 7 | 23 | Turnover | 10–38 |
| LAC | Q3 1:16 | 4 | 21 | Field goal | 10–41 |
| BUF | Q4 14:14 | 8 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 10–41 |
| LAC | Q4 11:09 | 10 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–48 |
| BUF | Q4 4:06 | 11 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 10–48 |
| LAC | Q4 0:05 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–48 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 20/36 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.95
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.