Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+10.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play+0.041
- 39.5%Success rate42.4%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- 34.3%Third-down rate39.9%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.28Points / drive1.87
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 18/39 | 298 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/26 | 218 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 21 | 112 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
75.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.75
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+10.37