Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
34.5
Model margin
+8.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play-0.109
- 43.9%Success rate38.7%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.179
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- 35.7%Third-down rate39.5%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.99Points / drive1.20
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 10:40 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:08 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 6:54 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 4:26 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 3:03 | 9 | 23 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q2 14:17 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 9:53 | 8 | 47 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| PIT | Q2 6:09 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q2 5:31 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| PIT | Q2 5:24 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| BAL | Q2 4:29 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q2 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 6–13 |
| BAL | Q3 10:15 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q3 7:09 | 11 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 6–13 |
| BAL | Q3 3:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q3 1:38 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 6–13 |
| BAL | Q4 13:04 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q4 11:17 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| BAL | Q4 11:05 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q4 9:44 | 7 | 95 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| BAL | Q4 5:15 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 13–13 |
| PIT | Q4 1:50 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| BAL | Q4 1:07 | 6 | 10 | End of half | 13–13 |
| PIT | OT | 6 | 28 | Punt | 13–13 |
| BAL | OT | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–13 |
| PIT | OT | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–13 |
| BAL | OT | 9 | 25 | Field goal | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 19/36 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2/2 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 21/36 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+7.73
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.53