Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
34.5
Model margin
+8.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play-0.109
- 43.9%Success rate38.7%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.179
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- 35.7%Third-down rate39.5%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.99Points / drive1.20
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 19/36 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2/2 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 21/36 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+7.73
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.53