2005 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
38
Model margin
+1.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.020
- 39.7%Success rate40.6%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.024
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- 38.9%Third-down rate43.8%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.36Points / drive1.65
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 8:02 | 3 | -8 | Opp touchdown | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q1 7:03 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 10–0 |
| TB | Q1 5:19 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q1 2:14 | 12 | 63 | Turnover on downs | 10–0 |
| TB | Q2 11:39 | 6 | 30 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| ATL | Q2 8:38 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| TB | Q2 4:31 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 13–3 |
| ATL | Q2 2:53 | 10 | 83 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| TB | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–10 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| TB | Q3 9:22 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| ATL | Q3 5:32 | 13 | 74 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| TB | Q4 12:57 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 20–20 |
| ATL | Q4 12:14 | 10 | 44 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| TB | Q4 7:36 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 27–27 |
| ATL | Q4 1:55 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 27–27 |
| TB | Q4 1:07 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 30–27 |
| ATL | Q4 0:42 | 5 | 23 | Missed field goal | 30–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 11/19 | 118 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 19 | 116 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Chris Simms | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 21/38 | 306 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 82 | 4.6 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.43