Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-3.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.104
- 42.0%Success rate39.5%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.192
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- 41.1%Third-down rate34.3%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.29Points / drive1.28
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/33 | 171 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 26 | 111 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 12/28 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 21 | 117 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Mike McMahon | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.0%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.75
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.78