Closing spread
KC -3
Total
51
Model margin
+2.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.097
- 44.6%Success rate45.7%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.042
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- 42.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.91Points / drive2.01
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/40 | 248 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Pass | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 19/26 | 323 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 31 | 119 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59