Closing spread
IND -8
Total
47
Model margin
+2.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.188
- 43.9%Success rate51.2%
- +0.202EPA / dropback+0.339
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.007
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- 35.7%Third-down rate50.1%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.99Points / drive2.60
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 12–4 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. IND are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| IND | Q1 13:26 | 1 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 13:16 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 11:13 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q1 6:07 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| IND | Q1 4:05 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q1 3:14 | 3 | 17 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| IND | Q1 1:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 14:47 | 8 | 31 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| IND | Q2 9:58 | 4 | 36 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 7:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–10 |
| IND | Q2 6:11 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| PIT | Q2 5:22 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–13 |
| IND | Q2 3:02 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–13 |
| PIT | Q2 1:11 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| IND | Q2 0:15 | 2 | 19 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–23 |
| PIT | Q3 11:47 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 7–23 |
| IND | Q3 7:43 | 12 | 47 | Punt | 7–23 |
| PIT | Q3 0:38 | 9 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 7–23 |
| IND | Q4 11:21 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–23 |
| PIT | Q4 7:28 | 6 | 13 | Turnover | 7–23 |
| IND | Q4 5:31 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 7–26 |
| PIT | Q4 1:38 | 5 | 28 | End of half | 7–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/26 | 133 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 15/25 | 245 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 29 | 124 | 4.3 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.19