2005 · Week 12

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

7·26

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -8

Total

47

Model margin

+2.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapColts
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.188
  • 43.9%Success rate51.2%
  • +0.202EPA / dropback+0.339
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.007
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate50.1%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.60
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.084EPA / play allowed-0.061

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.2 points. IND are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT
2016 · W12PIT @ IND28–7PIT

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/2613312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker12433.60
Ben Roethlisberger3217.00
Jerome Bettis691.50
Duce Staley362.00

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning15/2524521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James291244.30
James Mungro221.00
Dominic Rhodes111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.19