Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.011
- 40.6%Success rate41.2%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.116
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- 43.8%Third-down rate43.3%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.65Points / drive1.90
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.118
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 17/35 | 171 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/27 | 164 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 24 | 131 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Stephen Davis | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.68