Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play-0.040
- 39.5%Success rate40.9%
- -0.036EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- 37.9%Third-down rate35.3%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.44Points / drive1.48
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.069EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 13/26 | 224 | 3 | 1 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 27 | 81 | 3.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 22/37 | 272 | 2 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 12/28 | 115 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.96