Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play-0.040
- 39.5%Success rate40.9%
- -0.036EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- 37.9%Third-down rate35.3%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.44Points / drive1.48
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.069EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:47 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:18 | 1 | 56 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| MIA | Q1 11:07 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q1 7:34 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–0 |
| MIA | Q1 5:54 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q1 4:57 | 6 | 26 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| MIA | Q1 2:14 | 10 | 43 | Punt | 21–0 |
| BUF | Q2 12:04 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 21–0 |
| MIA | Q2 9:31 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 21–0 |
| BUF | Q2 8:15 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 21–0 |
| MIA | Q2 4:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–0 |
| BUF | Q2 3:56 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–0 |
| MIA | Q2 2:58 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 21–3 |
| BUF | Q2 0:43 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 21–3 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–3 |
| MIA | Q3 13:53 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–3 |
| BUF | Q3 12:58 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 21–3 |
| MIA | Q3 11:06 | 4 | -5 | Safety | 23–3 |
| BUF | Q3 10:12 | 11 | 59 | Turnover | 23–3 |
| MIA | Q3 4:03 | 12 | 79 | Turnover on downs | 23–3 |
| BUF | Q3 0:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 23–3 |
| MIA | Q4 13:53 | 10 | 50 | Touchdown | 23–10 |
| BUF | Q4 11:35 | 5 | 1 | Punt | 23–10 |
| MIA | Q4 9:53 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 23–17 |
| BUF | Q4 7:35 | 9 | 18 | Punt | 23–17 |
| MIA | Q4 3:03 | 3 | 31 | Turnover | 23–17 |
| BUF | Q4 2:29 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 23–17 |
| MIA | Q4 1:51 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 23–24 |
| BUF | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 13/26 | 224 | 3 | 1 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 27 | 81 | 3.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 22/37 | 272 | 2 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 12/28 | 115 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.96