Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
43
Model margin
+4.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.057
- 48.2%Success rate43.9%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.202
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.7%
- 43.8%Third-down rate35.7%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 2.30Points / drive1.99
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 22/38 | 227 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 2 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/41 | 386 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.67