Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
32
Model margin
+3.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.138
- 42.0%Success rate37.0%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.129
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 41.1%Third-down rate28.3%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.29Points / drive1.08
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 31/58 | 277 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 6/17 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.12