Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
32
Model margin
+3.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.138
- 42.0%Success rate37.0%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.129
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 41.1%Third-down rate28.3%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.29Points / drive1.08
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 41–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 13:09 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:26 | 11 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 3:44 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 2:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 0:32 | 5 | 32 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| GB | Q2 13:34 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 13:10 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| GB | Q2 11:02 | 9 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q2 7:03 | 6 | 49 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| GB | Q2 4:33 | 13 | 70 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| CHI | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| GB | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–9 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–9 |
| GB | Q3 12:30 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–9 |
| CHI | Q3 11:04 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–9 |
| GB | Q3 9:31 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–9 |
| CHI | Q3 6:26 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–9 |
| GB | Q3 4:35 | 8 | 57 | Punt | 7–9 |
| CHI | Q4 14:48 | 11 | 58 | Field goal | 7–12 |
| GB | Q4 8:22 | 2 | 15 | Turnover | 7–12 |
| CHI | Q4 7:31 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–12 |
| GB | Q4 5:54 | 4 | -9 | Turnover | 7–12 |
| CHI | Q4 4:56 | 3 | 5 | Missed field goal | 7–12 |
| GB | Q4 4:04 | 3 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 7–19 |
| GB | Q4 3:06 | 17 | 69 | End of half | 7–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 31/58 | 277 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 6/17 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.12