Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play+0.076
- 40.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.093EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.083
- 5.7%Explosive rate9.5%
- 35.3%Third-down rate42.3%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.30Points / drive1.91
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 15/37 | 135 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 15 | 29 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/37 | 271 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48