Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play+0.076
- 40.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.093EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.083
- 5.7%Explosive rate9.5%
- 35.3%Third-down rate42.3%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.30Points / drive1.91
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 13:07 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:35 | 5 | 34 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:45 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:34 | 9 | 48 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:17 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q2 13:45 | 15 | 65 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:36 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NE | Q2 1:02 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 3–6 |
| NE | Q3 12:44 | 15 | 87 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:12 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NE | Q3 2:22 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:02 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–16 |
| NE | Q4 11:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:39 | 8 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 3–16 |
| NE | Q4 7:46 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 3–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:40 | 7 | 22 | Turnover | 3–16 |
| NE | Q4 4:04 | 7 | 33 | End of half | 3–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 15/37 | 135 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 15 | 29 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/37 | 271 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48