2005 · Week 13

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

42·0

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mike McMahon

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

44

Model margin

-7.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapEagles
  • +0.156EPA / play-0.104
  • 49.3%Success rate39.5%
  • +0.205EPA / dropback-0.063
  • +0.100EPA / rush-0.192
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • 40.1%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 78.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.28
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.046EPA / play allowed-0.028

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PHI
SEAQ1 15:001762Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 6:50922Opp touchdown14–0
PHIQ1 3:24415Punt14–0
SEAQ1 1:24422Punt14–0
PHIQ1 0:0238Punt14–0
SEAQ2 13:3735Punt14–0
PHIQ2 12:34327Opp touchdown21–0
PHIQ2 11:31610Punt21–0
SEAQ2 8:2869Punt21–0
PHIQ2 5:2426Turnover27–0
SEAQ2 4:3912Touchdown28–0
PHIQ2 4:34819Turnover on downs28–0
SEAQ2 1:49551Touchdown35–0
PHIQ2 0:2923End of half35–0
PHIQ3 15:001-3Opp touchdown42–0
PHIQ3 14:45510Punt42–0
SEAQ3 12:4031Punt42–0
PHIQ3 10:40626Punt42–0
SEAQ3 7:29513Punt42–0
PHIQ3 4:393-1Turnover42–0
SEAQ3 3:443-1Missed field goal42–0
PHIQ3 2:1133Punt42–0
SEAQ3 0:4036Punt42–0
PHIQ4 13:243-1Punt42–0
SEAQ4 11:48514Punt42–0
PHIQ4 8:0035Punt42–0
SEAQ4 7:0537Punt42–0
PHIQ4 4:43624Turnover42–0
SEAQ4 2:2233Punt42–0
PHIQ4 1:35417End of half42–0

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck8/159810
Seneca Wallace0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander19492.62
Maurice Morris15332.20
Seneca Wallace100.00

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Koy Detmer13/298402
Mike McMahon4/106102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Moats10262.60
Brian Westbrook9171.90
Mike McMahon3144.70
Reno Mahe231.50
Koy Detmer111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%3.3%3.4%5.0%3.2%7.2%5.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

30.1%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-7.33