2005 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Tiger Stadium (LSU) · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+0.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.096
- 39.7%Success rate41.1%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.205
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.1%
- 38.9%Third-down rate38.7%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.36Points / drive1.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 12/21 | 123 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 18/34 | 215 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 18 | 49 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.61