Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
40
Model margin
-5.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.104
- 42.4%Success rate39.5%
- +0.087EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- 39.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.87Points / drive1.28
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 28/44 | 312 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 32 | 124 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 14/32 | 190 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 11 | 114 | 10.4 | 2 |
| Reno Mahe | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.75
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.24