2005 · Week 15

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

3·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Kyle Orton

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 12°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

30.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBears
  • -0.020EPA / play-0.138
  • 40.6%Success rate37.0%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback-0.147
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.129
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 43.8%Third-down rate28.3%
  • 51.9%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.08
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.167

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. CHI are 9-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CHI
CHIQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:30614Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:4432Punt0–0
ATLQ1 9:4935Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:0530Punt0–0
ATLQ1 6:36712Punt0–0
CHIQ1 3:3333Punt0–0
ATLQ1 1:561156Field goal3–0
CHIQ2 10:16652Field goal3–3
ATLQ2 6:3332Punt3–3
CHIQ2 5:2348Field goal3–6
ATLQ2 3:20426Punt3–6
CHIQ2 1:40539Punt3–6
ATLQ2 0:1710End of half3–6
ATLQ3 15:003-6Punt3–6
CHIQ3 12:551049Turnover3–12
CHIQ3 8:2011Touchdown3–13
ATLQ3 8:17515Turnover3–13
CHIQ3 6:071050Field goal3–16
ATLQ3 0:53846Turnover3–16
CHIQ4 12:0957Punt3–16
ATLQ4 9:2146Turnover on downs3–16
CHIQ4 6:55510Missed field goal3–16
ATLQ4 4:1149Turnover on downs3–16
CHIQ4 2:3438Punt3–16
ATLQ4 1:36747End of half3–16

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick13/3212202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn17814.80
Mike Vick6355.80
T.J. Duckett8-2-0.30

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman9/169301
Kyle Orton2/101200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones27913.41
Bernard Berrian23115.50
Adrian Peterson362.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.50