Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
-4.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.096
- 41.2%Success rate41.1%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.205
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- 43.3%Third-down rate38.7%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.90Points / drive1.11
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 13/21 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 21 | 75 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bouman | 17/34 | 193 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.27
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-3.96