Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
-4.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.096
- 41.2%Success rate41.1%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.205
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- 43.3%Third-down rate38.7%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.90Points / drive1.11
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 12:59 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 10:33 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 4:42 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 2:56 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 1:54 | 10 | 20 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 11:52 | 4 | 44 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q2 10:06 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| NO | Q2 5:22 | 7 | 40 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q2 1:52 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| NO | Q2 0:41 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 32 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NO | Q3 10:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q3 8:56 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NO | Q3 5:44 | 7 | 10 | Punt | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q3 3:25 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| NO | Q3 0:27 | 4 | -2 | Turnover | 24–7 |
| CAR | Q4 14:54 | 3 | 5 | Missed field goal | 24–7 |
| NO | Q4 12:42 | 10 | 59 | Turnover | 24–7 |
| CAR | Q4 9:24 | 4 | 3 | Turnover | 24–7 |
| NO | Q4 7:43 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| CAR | Q4 5:47 | 4 | 2 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| CAR | Q4 4:23 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| NO | Q4 1:02 | 2 | 21 | End of half | 27–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 13/21 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 21 | 75 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bouman | 17/34 | 193 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.27
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-3.96