Closing spread
DEN -8
Total
35
Model margin
+1.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play-0.082
- 44.7%Success rate39.5%
- +0.109EPA / dropback-0.036
- +0.067EPA / rush-0.141
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.9%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.97Points / drive1.44
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/37 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 21 | 97 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Tatum Bell | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 22/35 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaud Williams | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.90