2019 · Week 12

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brandon Allen

3·20

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 40°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

+3.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBills
  • -0.054EPA / play-0.023
  • 40.3%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.47CPOE-2.62
  • 32.0%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.56
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ DEN30–33DEN
2024 · playoffsDEN @ BUF7–31BUF
2023 · W10DEN @ BUF24–22DEN
2020 · W15BUF @ DEN48–19BUF
2017 · W3DEN @ BUF16–26BUF
2014 · W14BUF @ DEN17–24DEN
2011 · W16DEN @ BUF14–40BUF
2008 · W16BUF @ DEN30–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BUF
DENQ1 15:00946Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:591669Field goal0–3
DENQ1 1:10415Punt0–3
BUFQ2 13:591197Field goal0–6
DENQ2 8:095-5Punt0–6
BUFQ2 5:00316Turnover0–6
DENQ2 4:03738Turnover0–6
BUFQ2 0:57440End of half0–6
BUFQ3 15:00859Touchdown0–13
DENQ3 12:57938Field goal3–13
BUFQ3 7:40635Punt3–13
DENQ3 5:3237Punt3–13
BUFQ3 3:5538Punt3–13
DENQ3 2:293-3Punt3–13
BUFQ3 0:51729Punt3–13
DENQ4 13:033-9Punt3–13
BUFQ4 11:54231Touchdown3–20
DENQ4 11:0837Punt3–20
BUFQ4 10:1137Punt3–20
DENQ4 7:5330Punt3–20
BUFQ4 7:02934End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Allen10/258201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay13574.40
Royce Freeman22010.00
Brandon Allen284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton18270
Noah Fant35140
Phillip Lindsay13110
Royce Freeman2290
Tim Patrick1330
Diontae Spencer1100
DaeSean Hamilton0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen15/2518521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary211065.00
Frank Gore15654.30
Josh Allen9566.20
Robert Foster12222.00
Isaiah McKenzie1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley69761
John Brown24391
Robert Foster11240
Tyler Kroft11140
Isaiah McKenzie23130
Dawson Knox22110
Devin Singletary1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.42
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.08