Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play-0.023
- 40.3%Success rate41.8%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.47CPOE-2.62
- 32.0%Third-down rate35.9%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.47Points / drive1.56
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 10/25 | 82 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/25 | 185 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 21 | 106 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| John Brown | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Robert Foster | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.42
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08