Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.186
- 42.8%Success rate47.8%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.075EPA / rush+0.029
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +0.58CPOE+0.64
- 40.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
- 2.16Points / drive2.90
- 1.8%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 13/22 | 144 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/26 | 272 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 3 | 68 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.42