2024 · WC

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

7·31

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 32°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBills
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.186
  • 42.8%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.075EPA / rush+0.029
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +0.58CPOE+0.64
  • 40.4%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
  • 2.16Points / drive2.90
  • 1.8%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ DEN30–33DEN
2023 · W10DEN @ BUF24–22DEN
2020 · W15BUF @ DEN48–19BUF
2019 · W12DEN @ BUF3–20BUF
2017 · W3DEN @ BUF16–26BUF
2014 · W14BUF @ DEN17–24DEN
2011 · W16DEN @ BUF14–40BUF
2008 · W16BUF @ DEN30–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BUF
DENQ1 15:00570Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 12:361159Field goal7–3
DENQ1 7:0735Punt7–3
BUFQ1 5:321386Touchdown7–10
DENQ2 12:57931Punt7–10
BUFQ2 8:281144Punt7–10
DENQ2 1:52855Missed field goal7–10
BUFQ3 15:00755Field goal7–13
DENQ3 10:0335Punt7–13
BUFQ3 8:401168Touchdown7–21
DENQ3 3:0634Punt7–21
BUFQ3 1:06359Touchdown7–28
DENQ4 14:49861Turnover on downs7–28
BUFQ4 11:321490Field goal7–31
DENQ4 4:374-7Turnover on downs7–31
BUFQ4 3:20213End of half7–31

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix13/2214410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Nix44310.80
Javonte Williams7294.10
Tyler Badie284.00
Marvin Mims Jr.210.50
Jaleel McLaughlin2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton59750
Troy Franklin23541
Javonte Williams22140
Marvin Mims Jr.24120
Adam Trautman1120
Lucas Krull1120
Jaleel McLaughlin1100
Devaughn Vele0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen20/2627220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook231205.21
Josh Allen8465.80
Ty Johnson9444.90
Ray Davis133.00
Mitchell Trubisky3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel33681
Khalil Shakir66610
Dalton Kincaid33470
Dawson Knox23380
Ty Johnson22261
Mack Hollins12190
Amari Cooper2380
Keon Coleman1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.42