Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Total
49
Model margin
-2.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.169EPA / play-0.071
- 50.4%Success rate40.3%
- +0.298EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.103
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- +6.29CPOE-5.11
- 49.9%Third-down rate39.5%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.78Points / drive1.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DEN are 3-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 28/40 | 359 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 11 | 13 | 147 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 8 | 10 | 112 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 20/32 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 8 | 11 | 68 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.19