2014 · Week 14

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Kyle Orton

17·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -9

Total

47

Model margin

+4.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.083
  • 41.0%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.188
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.075
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.80CPOE+3.06
  • 37.3%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.29
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. DEN are 3-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ DEN30–33DEN
2024 · playoffsDEN @ BUF7–31BUF
2023 · W10DEN @ BUF24–22DEN
2020 · W15BUF @ DEN48–19BUF
2019 · W12DEN @ BUF3–20BUF
2017 · W3DEN @ BUF16–26BUF
2011 · W16DEN @ BUF14–40BUF
2008 · W16BUF @ DEN30–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–DEN
BUFQ1 15:00528Turnover0–0
DENQ1 12:1946Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:191041Turnover on downs0–0
DENQ1 5:35661Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 2:431155Field goal3–7
DENQ2 11:5110Turnover3–7
BUFQ2 11:2536Punt3–7
DENQ2 8:531140Touchdown3–14
BUFQ2 3:2630Punt3–14
DENQ2 1:49451Turnover3–14
BUFQ2 0:3210End of half3–14
DENQ3 15:00690Touchdown3–21
BUFQ3 12:01419Turnover3–21
DENQ3 10:1048Turnover3–21
BUFQ3 8:52860Turnover3–21
DENQ3 4:56728Field goal3–24
BUFQ3 1:071590Touchdown10–24
DENQ4 10:46724Punt10–24
BUFQ4 6:23312Punt10–24
DENQ4 5:2530Punt10–24
BUFQ4 4:2017104Touchdown17–24
DENQ4 0:5500End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton38/5735512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson8354.40
Anthony Dixon3155.00
Marquise Goodwin11212.00
Bryce Brown3113.70
Kyle Orton111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins7121270
Scott Chandler811810
Chris Hogan79541
Fred Jackson1014370
Robert Woods34360
Bryce Brown23140
Lee Smith1160
MarQueis Gray0100
Marquise Goodwin0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning14/2017302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Juwan Thompson46315.80
C.J. Anderson21582.83
Emmanuel Sanders11313.00
Jeremy Stewart111.00
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker66820
Emmanuel Sanders46560
Juwan Thompson12140
Demaryius Thomas25110
Jacob Tamme11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.30