Closing spread
DEN -9
Total
47
Model margin
+4.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.083
- 41.0%Success rate46.3%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.188
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.075
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.80CPOE+3.06
- 37.3%Third-down rate44.4%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.48Points / drive2.29
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DEN are 3-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 38/57 | 355 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 7 | 12 | 127 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 8 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 7 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 10 | 14 | 37 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/20 | 173 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Thompson | 4 | 63 | 15.8 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 21 | 58 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Stewart | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 6 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.30