Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.119EPA / play-0.071
- 38.4%Success rate39.0%
- -0.110EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.135
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.16CPOE-0.28
- 38.9%Third-down rate42.2%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.24Points / drive1.47
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 24/40 | 259 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| De'Angelo Henderson Sr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 15 | 75 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 20/26 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 14 | 21 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 7 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 6 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.06