2017 · Week 3

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

16·26

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 83°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

40

Model margin

+1.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBills
  • -0.119EPA / play-0.071
  • 38.4%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback-0.024
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.135
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.16CPOE-0.28
  • 38.9%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.47
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ DEN30–33DEN
2024 · playoffsDEN @ BUF7–31BUF
2023 · W10DEN @ BUF24–22DEN
2020 · W15BUF @ DEN48–19BUF
2019 · W12DEN @ BUF3–20BUF
2014 · W14BUF @ DEN17–24DEN
2011 · W16DEN @ BUF14–40BUF
2008 · W16BUF @ DEN30–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BUF
DENQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:5230Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:05740Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:3536Punt0–0
DENQ1 5:521252Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 0:491074Touchdown3–7
DENQ2 11:41451Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 10:26835Punt10–7
DENQ2 6:3636Punt10–7
BUFQ2 4:46411Field goal10–10
DENQ2 2:51858Field goal13–10
BUFQ2 0:42438Field goal13–13
DENQ2 0:0100End of half13–13
BUFQ3 15:00411Punt13–13
DENQ3 12:45959Field goal16–13
BUFQ3 7:47469Touchdown16–20
DENQ3 6:203-3Turnover16–20
BUFQ3 5:094-3Punt16–20
DENQ3 3:23720Turnover on downs16–20
BUFQ3 0:293-3Field goal16–23
DENQ4 13:52843Turnover16–23
BUFQ4 10:441538Field goal16–26
DENQ4 3:14736Turnover on downs16–26
BUFQ4 1:4700End of half16–26

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian24/4025902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles9566.21
C.J. Anderson8364.50
Trevor Siemian3124.00
Isaiah McKenzie144.00
De'Angelo Henderson Sr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas69980
Emmanuel Sanders715750
Bennie Fowler47550
Virgil Green33180
C.J. Anderson2270
A.J. Derby1250
Jamaal Charles1110
Cody Latimer0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor20/2621320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy14211.50
Tyrod Taylor8131.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews35610
LeSean McCoy77480
Charles Clay66391
Nick O'Leary11310
Kaelin Clay12280
Andre Holmes2261
Zay Jones0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.06