Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.097
- 42.3%Success rate48.4%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.110EPA / rush+0.010
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.74CPOE+4.96
- 36.8%Third-down rate49.7%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.87Points / drive2.33
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24/29 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 11 | 53 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/26 | 177 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 12 | 109 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 68 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.32