2023 · Week 10

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

24·22

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 49°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Nothing filed.

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBills
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.097
  • 42.3%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.110EPA / rush+0.010
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.74CPOE+4.96
  • 36.8%Third-down rate49.7%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.33
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ DEN30–33DEN
2024 · playoffsDEN @ BUF7–31BUF
2020 · W15BUF @ DEN48–19BUF
2019 · W12DEN @ BUF3–20BUF
2017 · W3DEN @ BUF16–26BUF
2014 · W14BUF @ DEN17–24DEN
2011 · W16DEN @ BUF14–40BUF
2008 · W16BUF @ DEN30–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0013Turnover0–0
DENQ1 14:52311Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 12:39962Turnover3–0
DENQ1 8:22735Punt3–0
BUFQ1 4:24513Punt3–0
DENQ1 2:30938Punt3–0
BUFQ2 12:4735Punt3–0
DENQ2 11:10737Touchdown9–0
BUFQ2 7:17881Touchdown9–8
DENQ2 3:36855Field goal12–8
BUFQ2 0:4510Turnover12–8
DENQ2 0:3739Field goal15–8
DENQ3 15:00413Punt15–8
BUFQ3 12:0949Turnover on downs15–8
DENQ3 11:2232Turnover15–8
BUFQ3 9:51754Touchdown15–15
DENQ3 6:4268Punt15–15
BUFQ3 2:30341Turnover15–15
DENQ3 1:1334Punt15–15
BUFQ4 14:52626Punt15–15
DENQ4 12:221264Touchdown21–15
BUFQ4 5:06675Touchdown21–22
DENQ4 1:55730Field goal24–22

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson24/2919320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams21793.80
Russell Wilson9303.30
Samaje Perine188.00
Jaleel McLaughlin681.30
Marvin Mims Jr.1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton811531
Samaje Perine33350
Jerry Jeudy33350
Javonte Williams44311
Adam Trautman22150
Lil'Jordan Humphrey11140
Chris Manhertz1160
Jaleel McLaughlin2240
Lucas Krull0100
Marvin Mims Jr.0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen15/2617712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook121099.10
Latavius Murray9687.61
Josh Allen4133.31
Ty Johnson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gabe Davis26560
Dalton Kincaid56511
Stefon Diggs35340
Khalil Shakir12240
James Cook22110
Latavius Murray2310
Deonte Harty0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.32