Closing spread
DEN -1.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.145EPA / play+0.036
- 48.8%Success rate43.7%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.097
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.069
- 11.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- +3.77CPOE-1.38
- 46.0%Third-down rate42.4%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.73Points / drive2.10
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DEN are 3-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 25/39 | 283 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 24 | 117 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 26/46 | 279 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 8 | 8 | 93 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Pat Bryant | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.23