2025 · DIV

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

30·33

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.145EPA / play+0.036
  • 48.8%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback+0.097
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.069
  • 11.0%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +3.77CPOE-1.38
  • 46.0%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.73Points / drive2.10
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. DEN are 3-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsDEN @ BUF7–31BUF
2023 · W10DEN @ BUF24–22DEN
2020 · W15BUF @ DEN48–19BUF
2019 · W12DEN @ BUF3–20BUF
2017 · W3DEN @ BUF16–26BUF
2014 · W14BUF @ DEN17–24DEN
2011 · W16DEN @ BUF14–40BUF
2008 · W16BUF @ DEN30–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–DEN
DENQ1 15:001459Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 7:291267Touchdown7–3
DENQ1 0:0530Punt7–3
BUFQ2 14:42332Turnover7–3
DENQ2 13:20869Touchdown7–10
BUFQ2 9:331269Field goal10–10
DENQ2 2:131280Touchdown10–17
BUFQ2 0:2214Turnover10–20
DENQ2 0:0200Field goal10–20
BUFQ3 15:002-10Turnover10–20
DENQ3 14:0837Field goal10–23
BUFQ3 11:35973Touchdown17–23
DENQ3 6:4935Turnover17–23
BUFQ3 5:502-4Turnover17–23
DENQ3 4:55622Punt17–23
BUFQ3 2:30985Touchdown24–23
DENQ4 13:2433Punt24–23
BUFQ4 11:501268Field goal27–23
DENQ4 4:11873Touchdown27–30
BUFQ4 0:55736Field goal30–30
DENQ4 0:0500End of half30–30
DENOT410Punt30–30
BUFOT929Turnover30–30
DENOT625Field goal30–33

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen25/3928332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook241174.90
Josh Allen12665.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Kincaid66831
Khalil Shakir79750
Ray Davis22330
Dawson Knox35320
James Cook23240
Brandin Cooks26200
Keon Coleman13101
Mecole Hardman1241
Curtis Samuel1320

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix26/4627931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Nix12292.40
Jaleel McLaughlin4215.30
RJ Harvey6203.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Mims Jr.88931
Courtland Sutton49530
RJ Harvey56460
Lil'Jordan Humphrey25331
Pat Bryant33320
Evan Engram1370
Tyler Badie1270
Nate Adkins1110
Adam Trautman0200
Jaleel McLaughlin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.23